Monday, June 26, 2017

【Japan's strongest】 Reasons why TEPCO HD's stock price will soar

Summer 2017. The No. 1 stock ranked as the most expensive / cheap stock with the Nikkei average hired by Diamond · Zai announced in the winter continued to be "[9501] TEPCO Holdings" last time.

The forecast for this term is expected to increase by 7%, and as a giant enterprise with sales of 5 trillion yen, we expect to increase significantly, and the final profit will increase by 2.2 times.

Background that TEPCO was exploding in the first place
TEPCO was fueled by the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011, causing an accident at Fukushima Daiichi NPS.
The worst accident since the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident that occurred on April 26, 1986, was recog- nized from the world, and it fell into a crisis of bankruptcy at a stretch.
Just after the accident, the company's stock price fell to a stop stop, and the stock price that had attached more than 2,000 yen before the accident fell to 128 yen.

The company, which was reigning as the king of defensive shares, is very popular with individual investors and institutional investors, and many people have TEPCO instead of deposits.
Some also invested the majority of the salary for a long time in TEPCO shares for many years and some had been sending their own dividend lives after early retirement.


At that time, the government promoted nuclear power plants, and the government did not dream of any accident that accident occurred because the nuclear plant explained "absolutely safe".
There is a big hit novel by Keigo Higashino, Keigo Higashino who is also a movie, "Bee in Heavenly Bee", but it is a work well understood at that time's nuclear myth.
It is often said that "the fact is stranger than the novel", but let us realize that what we can not imagine can happen is that we are living in the real world through this accident.

As a result, diversified investment is still fundamental in fundamental terms as investors,
It can be an investment law that can reliably and consistently increase assets by diversifying and investing in super large and high quality stocks.

■ Future TEPCO
By the way, although we are in the situation of each electric power company, we are recovering considerable performance including TEPCO.
Although there are pros and cons, there are many opportunities for the nuclear power plant to restart, pushing up the profits of each electric power company.
As the government takes a standpoint of promoting nuclear power plants, electric shares will continue to recover unless a big accident happens in the future.

Since TEPCO is the party who caused the accident, it is assumed that it will take several years to restart the nuclear power plant.
However, with the recent recovery of crude oil helped the business recovery so rapidly, the shareholders' equity ratio as of 1Q of 2017 has recovered to surprising 19.1%.

According to the company's forecast, it is expected to recover to the 22% level further by 2020.
Given that the capital ratio after the accident plummeted to 3.5%, it is a phenomenal resurgence play.


It is such a stock price of TEPCO, but you can see that it is still sluggish since immediately after the earthquake.
Decommissioning costs, compensation problems, and continued undisturbed are exacerbating investor psychology.

However, we believe that it is the best stock to buy at the moment, as materials that will boost the company's stock price will be lost in the future.

(1) Nuclear accident cost accident
Actually, TEPCO has no obligation to repay accident processing expenses.

The law says, "When nuclear damage is given, nuclear power companies concerned with the operation and the like of such reactors will be responsible for compensating for the damage", but in accidents with unexpected natural disasters exclude this I am doing.
In addition, if the accident cost exceeds 120 billion in one nuclear power plant, the country is obliged to spend money on expenses.

In 2014, nuclear damages compensation and decommissioning support mechanism law was established, all of which cost all nuclear damage compensation assistance organization (the state is the country) has come up.
This is not what TEPCO decided, it is what "country" decided to protect the country's most important infrastructure electric power.

(2) Compensation problem
It is decided to terminate a large amount of compensation paid uniformly to residents and business entities in the evacuation direction area for 2018 years.

It has already been six years since the accident, during which we have been compensating tens of millions of large funds for each evacuee family. Both TEPCO and evacuees can interpret that the time is coming for the future.

(3) Demand
TEPCO plans to rebuild to the 2020 level.
If a restitution is announced, the stock price will exceed 4 digits in one stroke.

This has been officially announced and is also shown in the company's "New and Comprehensive Special Project Plan".
In the early 2020s, we plan to return shareholders by resurrecting dividends or by initiating the cancellation of treasury stocks in the event that the progress of the business situation is evaluated by nuclear damage compensation management decisions management advocacy organization.
As a comment for investors, we are talking about such things by pushing.

"In the future, we will work hard to ensure earnings through thorough rationalization of management and strategic business development, and to pay dividends again. "

■ Summary
Based on the above, it will keep on an unprecedented low price in history [9501] It is not gambling to purchase TEPCO Holdings at this time anyhow, as a steady investment stock with a view to future price hikes and dividend revival You can grasp.

Even with the background that Nikkei average constituents are not eligible for replacement after the accident, the company's mission is serious,

Continue to be the strongest defensive share

There are no particular changes.

In the future, picking down prices can be an engine for future asset formation.